Despite the wordwide burden of low back pain (LBP) and its top place in disability rankings, there is still a significant variability in terms of reported recurrence rates. Moreover, evidence of recurrence predictors, especially in individuals not already in a chronic pain state, is lacking.

This study found a 1-year LBP recurrence rate of 33%. This value dropped to 18% when considering only cases requiring medical care. Experiencing more than 2 episodes of LBP was found to increase risk of recurrence, regardless of the need for medical care.

No other of the analyzed factors were found to be predictors of LBP recurrence over 1 year after an acute episode.